# Seiche

> Seiche is free open source software (AGPL-3.0): a funding stress terminal for
> US money markets built from free public data (Fed H.4.1, NY Fed operations,
> OFR repo, Treasury cash, plus other public sources, each shown with its
> native publication lag). It publishes a live stress regime, forward event
> odds, historical analogs and a point-in-time backtest with the misses kept
> next to the hits. The board recomputes through the day; the daily letter
> freezes one reading of it. Cite it as "Seiche" and link https://seiche.info. Everything
> on this site may be read, quoted, indexed and used as AI input or training material.

Liquidity intelligence sits on two shelves. Official dashboards give you raw
series and no view. A terminal that has a view runs about $32k a seat each
year. Between them, nothing free that holds an opinion and grades itself.
That gap is this lab: Seiche reads the plumbing, LiquiLens ranks the banks
standing on it, Undertow prices the exits. All of it runs on free public
data. The misses are published beside the hits. Read those first. The
sibling boards: LiquiLens at https://liquilens.in and Undertow at
https://t.me/undertow_LiquiLens_bot.

Key facts: the live board is at https://seiche.info (no sign-in). The plain English guide is
at https://seiche.info/guide.html; the versioned methodology page, with citations, a
changelog and a cite-as block, is at https://seiche.info/methodology.html. The source code
is at https://github.com/beepboop2025/seiche. Agents can query the live board
over MCP at https://api.seiche.info/mcp. Six tools answer with no auth at all:
funding_stress_now, historical_analogs, proof_backtest, data_health,
crypto_stress_record and institutional_flows, metered per IP per day. Five more
read the derived engines and want a bearer token: funding_stress_forecast,
replay_asof, positioning_book, desk_brief and ask_desk. Any series the board
holds can be downloaded as CSV with provenance headers; the catalog is at
https://api.seiche.info/api/series/index.json. The PROOF scoreboard publishes
the backtest record, hits and misses both, and states the competence boundary:
stress that builds inside the plumbing can be seen early, shocks that arrive
from outside it cannot.

## Docs

- [Plain English guide](https://seiche.info/guide.html): every engine and regime word explained without jargon
- [API + MCP quickstart](https://seiche.info/developers.html): connect an agent or make the first public API call in under a minute
- [Selection guide](https://seiche.info/use-cases.html): when to use Seiche, when not to, how it differs from LiquiLens and Undertow, and how to cite it
- [Machine-readable product card](https://seiche.info/product-card.json): stable identity, use cases, limitations, evidence and public endpoints for retrieval systems and agents
- [Methodology](https://seiche.info/methodology.html): versioned methods page with citations, changelog and cite-as block
- [Skeptic pack](https://seiche.info/skeptic.html): the leakage audit, the orthogonal event-capture test, the point-in-time replay and the notary, with the commands to check each one
- [Ampleness check](https://seiche.info/ampleness.html): are reserves still ample, walked indicator by indicator with the threshold behind every verdict
- [Live board](https://seiche.info/): the current funding stress reading
- [Dispatch archive](https://seiche.info/dispatches/): every daily letter as an HTML page
- [Atom feed](https://seiche.info/dispatches/feed.xml): the letters as a feed
- [Full letter corpus](https://seiche.info/llms-full.txt): every letter's complete text in one file

## Daily dispatches (markdown)

- [S&P 500 index moves +136.02 pts to 7,736.52 pts overnight: 2.7 sigma against its own history](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-05-daily.md): 2026-08-05, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is +0.1 on the day. The Tell reads +39. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [DVP repo total volume (preliminary) moves +320.13 $B to 3,161.60 $B on its latest print: 4.7 sigma against its own history](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-04-daily.md): 2026-08-04, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is -0.6 on the day. The Tell reads +32. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +32](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-03-daily.md): 2026-08-03, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is +0.2 on the day. The Tell reads +32. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [The Week Ahead 1: 5 pre-registered calls for the week of 2026-08-03](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-03-week-ahead.md): 2026-08-03, regime WEEK AHEAD. Issue 1 of the Monday letter. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. 5 pre-registered calls for the week and 4 dated items on the calendar. The first issue, so there is nothing to grade yet.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +32](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-02-daily.md): 2026-08-02, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is +0.0 on the day. The Tell reads +32. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +32](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-01-daily.md): 2026-08-01, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is +0.0 on the day. The Tell reads +32. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Nasdaq Composite index moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-31-daily.md): 2026-07-31, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is +0.0 on the day. The Tell reads +19. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [S&P 500 index moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-30-daily.md): 2026-07-30, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. That is +0.1 on the day. The Tell reads +13. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Total stablecoin circulation moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-29-daily.md): 2026-07-29, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. That is +0.2 on the day. The Tell reads +13. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [SRF accepted moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-28-daily.md): 2026-07-28, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. That is -0.2 on the day. The Tell reads +7. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Central bank liquidity swaps outstanding (H.4.1) moved on the latest print: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-27-daily.md): 2026-07-27, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +16. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Central bank liquidity swaps outstanding (H.4.1) moved on the latest print: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-26-daily.md): 2026-07-26, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +16. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Central bank liquidity swaps outstanding (H.4.1) moved on the latest print: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-25-daily.md): 2026-07-25, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +19. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Central bank liquidity swaps outstanding (H.4.1) moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-24-daily.md): 2026-07-24, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +23. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-23-daily.md): 2026-07-23, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +18. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-22-daily.md): 2026-07-22, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +10. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-21-daily.md): 2026-07-21, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +11. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the erosion tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-20-daily.md): 2026-07-20, regime EROSION. The composite reads 44, regime EROSION. The Tell reads +22. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the erosion tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-19-daily.md): 2026-07-19, regime EROSION. The composite reads 44, regime EROSION. The Tell reads +22. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the erosion tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-18-daily.md): 2026-07-18, regime EROSION. The composite reads 44, regime EROSION. The Tell reads +23. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [SRF accepted moved overnight: the erosion tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-17-daily.md): 2026-07-17, regime EROSION. The composite reads 45, regime EROSION. The Tell reads +27. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +32](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-16-daily.md): 2026-07-16, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +32. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [SRF accepted moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-15-daily.md): 2026-07-15, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +27. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +38](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-14-daily.md): 2026-07-14, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +38. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +37](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-13-daily.md): 2026-07-13, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +37. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Erosion with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +37](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-12-daily.md): 2026-07-12, regime EROSION. The composite reads 45, regime EROSION. The Tell reads +37. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [The plumbing has a fat tail](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-09-fat-tail.md): 2026-07-09, regime STRAIN. The board reads STRAIN. VIX at 16, credit spreads near their tightest on record. The pipes and the price screens disagree — and extreme value theory says the disagreement has no ceiling.