Seiche watches the plumbing of the dollar. When banks and funds start to run short of cash, that stress shows up in a few boring public numbers days or weeks before it reaches the news. Seiche reads those numbers every day and turns them into one plain reading: how much stress is building, and how close it is.
This is the no-jargon guide. If a word on the board looks like a shipping term, it probably is, on purpose, and this page tells you what each one actually means.
Top of every page is a single number and a one word regime. That is the whole board boiled down. If you read nothing else, read the regime word.
The water is flat. Nothing is building.
Small cracks. Worth watching, not acting.
Real pressure is building in the funding system.
The kind of conditions that came before past squeezes.
Everything else on the site is there to show you why it says what it says, so you never have to take it on faith.
That is enough to use Seiche well. The rest is depth for when you want it.
| Name on the board | What it is really telling you |
|---|---|
| Composite / regime | The overall stress reading, one number, one word. |
| Kink | How close we are to the point where bank cash gets scarce, and how many days away at the current drain rate. |
| Liquidity Weather | A six week forecast of how much cash is in the banking system, and which days land on thin ice. |
| Tail Seismograph | An early tremor detector: are the worst overnight lending rates starting to detach from the normal ones. |
| Echo | Does today's path rhyme with the run up to a past stress episode. |
| Tide Tables | What happened next, every previous time the board looked like it does today. |
| Resonance | Is the same calendar pressure making a bigger wave than before. Bigger wave, same push, means rising fragility. |
| Undertow | Is the system slowly losing its ability to calm itself down after everyday bumps. |
| Swell Forecast | The odds of a funding stress spike on each of the next 42 business days. |
| Hydrophone Array | How tightly connected the plumbing is right now, and which pipe moves first. |
| Global Basin | Are the world's funding systems moving as one tide. |
| Stablecoin Moorings | The crypto dollar's tie line to the US Treasury bill market, and the 24/7 canary when normal markets are closed. |
| ML Lab | A learned probability of a stress event, kept honest by being scored against a dumb baseline and told when it loses. |
| Station-Keeping | Watches for moves in the system's cash that the normal seasonal model cannot explain, and flags them early. |
| Riptide | When a spike happens, is it just harmless calendar noise or the start of a real squeeze. |
| Breakwater | How close the Fed is to stepping in, read from its own track record of when it acted before. |
| Bathymetry | Maps the shape of the basin floor from the water's motion. The full physics read, for the deep dive. |
| Microseism | Faint pre quake tremors clustering ahead of stress. |
| Thermohaline | The deep, slow current of dollars held offshore, over 14 trillion of it. |
| Far Basin | A policy fear signal from public censorship data, kept quarantined and out of the main reading until it earns a place. |
| Funding / the plumbing | The day to day market where banks and funds borrow cash overnight against safe collateral. When it seizes, everything else does. |
| Repo | A loan of cash overnight secured by a Treasury bond. The core pipe. |
| SOFR | The main interest rate on those overnight loans. When it spikes above where the Fed wants it, cash is getting scarce. |
| Reserves | The cash banks keep at the Fed. The buffer for the whole system. |
| TGA | The government's checking account at the Fed. When it fills up, it pulls cash out of the banking system. |
| Basis trade | A heavily leveraged bet linking the cash and futures Treasury markets. Large and fragile, so Seiche watches it. |
| Basis point (bp) | One hundredth of one percent. Small moves here matter. |