Seiche watches the plumbing of the dollar. When banks and funds start to run short of cash, that stress shows up in a few boring public numbers days or weeks before it reaches the news. Seiche reads those numbers every day and turns them into one plain reading: how much stress is building, and how close it is.
This is the no-jargon guide. If a word on the board looks like a shipping term, it probably is, on purpose, and this page tells you what each one actually means.
There are two shelves in liquidity intelligence. On one sit the official dashboards: FRED, the NY Fed, OFR, the FDIC. Raw series, no synthesis. On the other sits a Bloomberg terminal at roughly $32k a year for one seat. Between the shelves, nothing we've found that states a view and grades it in public. That gap is why this lab exists.
The gap matters more now. With the ON RRP buffer drained, Treasury settlement lands on bank reserves directly. In the week of 29 July 2026, reserves fell $80.6B and the TGA rebuild took $73.4B of it; the ledger summed six legs to the dollar. That is not a forecast. It is the mechanism, on tape.
One lab, three altitudes. Seiche reads the plumbing: reserves against a fitted demand curve, repo, the month end turn, a daily letter that calls the regime. LiquiLens ranks the institutions standing on that plumbing: 527,760 US bank quarters of free FDIC call report data, with a current-amended construction-PIT diagnostic reporting 72.8% recall on 552 failures since 2008 and a 21.7-month median lead. Undertow maps the markets those institutions make, who provides depth in each segment and what an exit at position size costs today.
Every layer grades itself where you can read it. Seiche's clean leak-audit variant reports 61.5% event recall and 16.7% run precision, but the API marks the historical evidence FINAL_VINTAGE_CONSTRUCTION_PIT and validated_backtest=false. Treat those figures as a historical diagnostic, not a validated backtest. The reserve-demand nowcast currently runs 30 days ahead of the latest NY Fed print; across 18 releases, 8 landed inside the official 68% band and 10 agreed on direction, so the site grades it "directionally useful, not yet precise".
Data receipt captured 9 August 2026 at 14:36 UTC: ten market packs contain 87,000 canonical observations across 28 role series and 220 forward market-pack validation records. This is a dated snapshot; the live endpoint carries the accrued count. The US pack is VALIDATING, nine are REFERENCE, none is SUPPORTED or evidence-eligible, and Global Tide is UNAVAILABLE. The public notary has 145 entries. The independent LiquiLens Lab receipt is a different scope: one sealed ten-product replay pass contains 421,620 evaluations across 5,273 canonical events with 82,556 robustness audit records; Seiche has 31 genuine prospective forward score records, while 0 of 7 requested products is eligible for retrospective backtesting.
Everything runs on free public data: the Fed's H.4.1, NY Fed operations, OFR repo, Treasury cash, FDIC call reports. Pull the same series and check our arithmetic. Seiche stays free, a public good on voluntary support. Read the misses before you weight today's letter.
Top of every page is a single number and a one word regime. That is the whole board boiled down. If you read nothing else, read the regime word.
The water is flat. Nothing is building.
Small cracks. Worth watching, not acting.
Real pressure is building in the funding system.
The kind of conditions that came before past squeezes.
Everything else on the site is there to show you why it says what it says, so you never have to take it on faith.
That is enough to use Seiche well. The rest is depth for when you want it.
Next to the number at the top is a three-position switch: GLANCE · DESK · DEEP. It is the same board at three depths. Glance shows only the verdict and the one chart that matters, for a ten-second read. Desk is the working view. Deep adds the fine print: how every number is computed, under each panel. Your choice is remembered, and the [ and ] keys step shallower and deeper. On any chart, drag to zoom into a period, hold ctrl (or pinch on a trackpad or phone) and scroll to zoom around the cursor, and double-click to reset.
| Name on the board | What it is really telling you |
|---|---|
| Composite / regime | The overall stress reading, one number, one word. |
| Kink | How close we are to the point where bank cash gets scarce, and how many days away at the current drain rate. |
| Liquidity Weather | A six week forecast of how much cash is in the banking system, and which days land on thin ice. |
| Tail Seismograph | An early tremor detector: are the worst overnight lending rates starting to detach from the normal ones. |
| Echo | Does today's path rhyme with the run up to a past stress episode. |
| Tide Tables | What happened next, every previous time the board looked like it does today. |
| Resonance | Is the same calendar pressure making a bigger wave than before. Bigger wave, same push, means rising fragility. |
| Undertow | Is the system slowly losing its ability to calm itself down after everyday bumps. |
| Swell Forecast | The odds of a funding stress spike on each of the next 42 business days. |
| Hydrophone Array | How tightly connected the plumbing is right now, and which pipe moves first. |
| Global Basin | Are the world's funding systems moving as one tide. |
| The Estuary / Passage | Are FX settlement and physical-market cash demands running ahead of the funding stress already priced, and did that historical route survive an untouched holdout sample. |
| Oil × Funding | How a barrel's price, time in transit, hedge and financing rate become cash demand, and how the money-market rate runs backward into the oil curve. |
| Stablecoin Moorings | The crypto dollar's tie line to the US Treasury bill market, and the 24/7 canary when normal markets are closed. |
| ML Lab | A learned probability of a stress event, kept honest by being scored against a dumb baseline and told when it loses. |
| Station-Keeping | Watches for moves in the system's cash that the normal seasonal model cannot explain, and flags them early. |
| Riptide | When a spike happens, is it just harmless calendar noise or the start of a real squeeze. |
| Breakwater | How close the Fed is to stepping in, read from its own track record of when it acted before. |
| Bathymetry | Maps the shape of the basin floor from the water's motion. The full physics read, for the deep dive. |
| Microseism | Faint pre quake tremors clustering ahead of stress. |
| Thermohaline | The deep, slow current of dollars held offshore, over 14 trillion of it. |
| Far Basin | A policy fear signal from public censorship data, kept quarantined and out of the main reading until it earns a place. |
| Funding / the plumbing | The day to day market where banks and funds borrow cash overnight against safe collateral. When it seizes, everything else does. |
| Repo | A loan of cash overnight secured by a Treasury bond. The core pipe. |
| SOFR | The main interest rate on those overnight loans. When it spikes above where the Fed wants it, cash is getting scarce. |
| Reserves | The cash banks keep at the Fed. The buffer for the whole system. |
| TGA | The government's checking account at the Fed. When it fills up, it pulls cash out of the banking system. |
| Basis trade | A heavily leveraged bet linking the cash and futures Treasury markets. Large and fragile, so Seiche watches it. |
| Basis point (bp) | One hundredth of one percent. Small moves here matter. |