The composite reads **44 out of 100, EROSION**, on 100% coverage. Nothing is breaking. The margin for error is what is shrinking. The heaviest hand on the dial is **weather** at a score of 84, worth +9.2 points of the total. A composite is only as honest as its decomposition, so here it is. The Tell, the gap between what the pipes measure and what the screens price, reads **+23**: plumbing indicators at the 50th percentile of their own history, market indicators at the 27th. The gap is modest. Modest gaps are what most days look like, and saying so is part of the record. Overnight, the tape did move: **Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly)** printed 0.84 % (level z +5.8, change z +15.4, as of 2026-06-01); **MMF repo with FICC (sponsored)** printed 1,168.72 $B (level z +6.7, change z -0.1, as of 2026-05-31); **Money market fund total assets** printed 8,400.99 $B (level z +1.8, change z +2.9, as of 2026-05-31). ## The dates that matter The next date that matters is **2026-07-23**: $266B auction settlement while reserves sit below the estimated kink, worst case $3,085B. The turn model puts 2026-07-31 (month_end) at +3.5bp with a band of [-0.4, +8.3], severity 2/5. FOMC decides 2026-07-29, 11 days out. The corporate tax date lands 2026-09-15, 59 days out; tax dates drain reserves on a schedule everyone can read. ## What the board is honest about All sources and engines report live. The misses this board has made sit in PROOF next to the hits; read those before weighting today's letter.